Federal agencies made 1,334 new 8(a) awards from October 2025 through June 2026. A year earlier, over the same nine months, they made 2,007. Two years earlier, 2,688. That is a 33.5% drop in one year and a 50% drop in two.
The dollars tell a different story. Agencies obligated $7.31 billion through 8(a) set-asides and sole-source awards in those nine months, against $7.44 billion a year earlier. Down 1.7%. The money is still flowing, mostly through contracts that already exist. What has dried up is new 8(a) work.
We pulled the same two measures for every federal set-aside program from USASpending.gov, the Treasury Department's public record of federal awards. The method and the exact queries are at the end, so you can rerun them.
The numbers, program by program
Each figure covers October 1 through June 30 of the fiscal year named, the same nine months every year.
| Set-aside program | New awards FY2025 | New awards FY2026 | Change | Dollars FY2025 | Dollars FY2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8(a) (set-aside and sole source) | 2,007 | 1,334 | -33.5% | $7.44B | $7.31B | -1.7% |
| Small business set-aside | 74,752 | 74,602 | -0.2% | $19.23B | $21.01B | +9.3% |
| SDVOSB (set-aside and sole source) | 6,052 | 4,663 | -23.0% | $4.23B | $5.74B | +35.7% |
| WOSB and EDWOSB | 1,398 | 1,166 | -16.6% | $0.66B | $0.64B | -3.0% |
| HUBZone | 668 | 675 | +1.0% | $0.47B | $0.41B | -12.8% |
"New awards" counts contracts and indefinite-delivery vehicles that started in the window. "Dollars" counts all obligations in the window, including modifications and orders on older contracts.
What stands out
8(a) work is running on the existing pipeline. Flat dollars with a third fewer new awards means agencies are funding 8(a) contracts they already had and starting far fewer. For a firm already holding 8(a) contracts, the near-term money looks steady. For a firm hoping to win its first 8(a) award, the door is a third narrower than it was a year ago. The two-year trend runs the same direction: 2,688 new awards in FY2024, 2,007 in FY2025, 1,334 in FY2026.
The timing lines up with a program in legal flux. A federal court enjoined SBA's use of the 8(a) social-disadvantage presumption in Ultima Services Corp. v. USDA in 2023, and SBA's final rule removing it from 13 C.F.R. 124.103, published August 11, 2026, took effect September 10, 2026. That rule post-dates the nine months measured here. The data shows what happened; it does not show why, and we are not going to guess. Our 8(a) certification guide covers the current test for new applicants.
SDVOSB is fewer, bigger awards. New SDVOSB awards fell 23% while SDVOSB dollars rose 35.7%, from $4.23 billion to $5.74 billion. Agencies are putting more money through service-disabled veteran-owned set-asides on fewer contract starts. If you hold SDVOSB certification, the opportunity is concentrated in larger vehicles, which raises the value of bonding capacity and working capital to perform on them.
The general small business set-aside is the steady one. Roughly 74,600 new awards both years, and dollars up 9.3%. It is by far the largest set-aside channel and the one least affected by changes to the socioeconomic programs.
HUBZone is small and slipping on dollars. New HUBZone awards held at 675, but obligations fell 12.8%. At $0.41 billion over nine months, it remains the smallest of the programs measured. Our HUBZone guide covers eligibility.
What this means for your pipeline
If you are an 8(a) firm, the data argues for working the contracts you have and the agencies already using you, since new 8(a) starts are scarce. It also argues for a second door: a firm that qualifies for the general small business set-aside competes in a channel that did not shrink. If you need financing to bid on fewer, larger awards, the federal spending database shows which agencies are still awarding in your NAICS code, which is where a lender will want to see your pipeline.
Method
- Source: USASpending.gov public API (api.usaspending.gov), queried October 23, 2026.
- Window: October 1 through June 30 of each fiscal year. We do not compare full fiscal years yet. DoD reports contract actions with a 90-day delay, so on October 23, 2026 a full-year comparison would read as a false collapse: full-year FY2026 8(a) dollars show $10.05 billion against $13.69 billion for FY2025, almost all of it reporting lag.
- Dollars: POST /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/, grouped by fiscal year, contract award types A, B, C and D.
- New awards: POST /api/v2/search/spending_by_award_count/ with the same filters and date_type: new_awards_only, counting contracts and IDVs.
- Set-aside codes: 8(a): 8A, 8AN. Small business: SBA, SBP. SDVOSB: SDVOSBC, SDVOSBS. WOSB and EDWOSB: WOSB, EDWOSB, WOSBSS, EDWOSBSS. HUBZone: HZC, HZS.
- What it does not cover: contracts awarded to certified firms outside a set-aside (full and open competition), and subcontracts. Both count toward agency small business goals but are not in these figures.
We will rerun these queries after the FY2026 reporting window closes and update the full-year numbers here.
